The Lunch Pail

The holiday season must be just around the corner. At least I hope it is… or that snow outside my office window is a huge bummer. But, while the weather is getting colder, the economy appears is in the beginning stages of a thaw. However, according to some industry analysts, the impact of a thaw may not be felt in time for the fast-approaching holiday season. Despite some cautious forecasts there is reason for guarded optimism in the online retail world.

First, some perspective. Last holiday season overall retail sales declined 2.4 percent. Despite the negativity of last holiday season some retailers, like Macy’s and other leading department stores, are already adjusting earnings forecasts upward.

The news of upticks in some earnings forecasts was followed closely by the forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF predicts that overall holiday retail sales will decline by roughly one percent this year.

But, there is good news as of November 3, 2009.

When considering only the online retail sector, Forrester Research is forecasting an eight percent increase. According to the report, online retail remains a bastion of hope for the economy and the retail industry as a whole. The eight percent forecasted growth is higher than last year’s actual growth of five percent. In the online retail world, the economy has thawed and consumers are spending.

Part of the explanation for the growth from some analysts is a solid percentage of incumbent online shoppers shifting more time and resources to online spending. A recent study from the e-tailing group proves the shift. According to the study, in 2008 44 percent of holiday purchases came from brick-and-mortar stores while 49 percent of holiday purchases were online. It was the first time the Web had ever been responsible for a larger percentage of sales than traditional channels.

With forecasts for online retailing increased this holiday season, and the growth forecasts of the online retail sector only getting better, marketers must ensure all of the necessary tools for direct digital marketing are in place to maximize the increasing value of the online channel. As consumers willingly adopt new technologies in the name of added convenience, marketers must be properly positioned to leverage addressable channels. Great direct digital marketing campaign execution this holiday season will make an already strong sales performance stronger.